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31 Jul 2025

🛢️ WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Price Struggles Near $69.60 as US Inventories Surge & Brazil Resumes Exports

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading near $69.60 after a sharp halt in its recent rally. A massive surprise build in US crude oil inventories and increased export competition from Brazil weigh heavily on prices, even as geopolitical tension and supply threats from US policy fuel volatility.

🔍 Key Highlights:
US EIA Report: Crude inventories soared by +7.698 million barrels, sharply higher than the forecasted -2.5 million. This is the largest stockpile jump in over six months—a bearish signal for WTI.

Brazil-US Oil Flows: Brazilian oil exports to the US are set to resume after the US lifted a 10% tariff on several oil products. The change could inject more supply into the US market, pressuring prices further.

Geopolitical Risks: Fresh US sanctions hit over 115 Iran-linked individuals and vessels. Trump threatened 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if no progress is made on the Ukraine war within 12 days, and plans new tariffs on India and China over Russian oil trade.

Despite downward pressure, the increasing geopolitical tension—particularly around Iran, Russia, and tariff threats—may still limit the downside in oil, making this a high-volatility environment ideal for short-term trades.

🔥 Technical Outlook:
WTI remains capped below the $70.00 resistance zone. Unless bulls push price above the recent high of $70.35, bears could retest support near $68.95, and if broken, potentially slide toward $67.70.

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