The recent breakthrough in the Trump trade war comes as the United States and European Union agreed on a landmark trade deal imposing a 15% tariff on most EU imports—half of the previously threatened rate. In return, the EU has committed to a massive $600 billion investment in the US economy, focusing on energy and defense sectors, marking one of the largest transatlantic trade agreements in recent memory.
Trade Deal Shifts Market Sentiment
This development has improved geopolitical stability and bolstered the US economic outlook. The surge in future EU energy purchases and defense imports supports US industrial growth and job creation. As a result, the US dollar strengthened, while the euro faced downward pressure despite a brief initial gain following the deal's announcement.
The deal, combined with the US-Japan trade agreement—where Japan secured a favorable flat 15% tariff on auto exports—has further softened tariff tensions, lifting market optimism.
Stock Market Responds Positively
The S&P 500 surged to new all-time highs, fueled by optimistic trade sentiment and easy financial conditions. Technical patterns, including an inverted head and shoulders and an ascending broadening wedge, suggest bullish momentum may continue. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones 30 eyes a breakout above 45,000, potentially triggering further gains.
US Dollar Outlook
Despite short-term rebounds from support near 96, the dollar remains under bearish pressure. Upcoming economic releases, such as GDP, Core PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm Payrolls, will be pivotal in determining the dollar’s near-term direction.
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