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28 Jul 2025

πŸ“‰ Gold Price Vulnerable Amid Ascending Channel Breakdown

Technical Outlook:

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to show signs of bearish pressure after breaking below a key ascending trend-channel and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the June upswing. This breakdown on Friday has sparked renewed interest from sellers, putting the metal at risk of further declines.

πŸ“ Key Breakdown Zone:

Ascending trend-channel support

50% Fibonacci retracement of June rally

Daily oscillators turning bearish

These developments suggest that momentum may now favor the bears. However, buyers showed some resilience around the 61.8% Fibo retracement zone near $3,312–$3,311, where a modest rebound occurred during Monday’s session.

πŸ‘‰ Caution is warranted: A decisive close below $3,311 would open the door for further downside targeting the $3,300 psychological level and potentially the monthly low at $3,283–$3,282.

Upside Scenarios:

In case of a bullish retracement, strong resistance lies ahead:

πŸ“Œ Resistance Levels to Watch:

$3,351–$3,352 β†’ 200-period SMA (4-hour chart)

$3,371–$3,373 β†’ Near-term supply zone

$3,400 β†’ Key psychological resistance

$3,438–$3,440 β†’ Static resistance barrier

A close above $3,352 may trigger short-covering rallies, but bullish momentum would need to clear the $3,400 level to invalidate the current bearish outlook.

Summary:

The technical bias remains tilted to the downside unless bulls regain control above key resistance levels. A clean break below $3,311 could invite fresh selling toward $3,283, while recovery attempts are likely to be capped near $3,352.
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