🚨 Gold Update: Bulls Eye $3,500 Again? 📈
08 Aug 2025
30 Jul 2025
🛢️ Crude Oil Forecast: Trump Ultimatum Fuels Supply Shock Risk
Oil prices surged over 3.5% yesterday, with Brent Crude closing at its highest level in over a month, as markets responded sharply to U.S. President Trump's unexpected ultimatum to Russia: reach a peace deal with Ukraine within 10 days or face new sanctions and 100% secondary tariffs on oil exports.
🔥 What’s Driving the Oil Spike?
According to ING commodities analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson, these potential tariffs could drastically disrupt global oil flows, given that Russia exports over 7 million barrels per day of crude and refined products. The threat alone has triggered a significant risk premium in oil markets.
Should the U.S. enforce full tariffs, major buyers of Russian oil—especially U.S. allies—would likely halt imports, leaving global supply severely constrained. While OPEC+ might ease supply cuts in response, ING warns that the market could still face a sharp deficit, and U.S. output increases would lag due to logistical and infrastructural delays.
📊 Inventory Snapshot – Mixed Signals
Latest API data shows:
+1.5M barrels increase in U.S. crude stocks
+0.5M barrels at Cushing hub
-1.7M barrels in gasoline (tightening consumer supply)
+4.2M barrels in distillates (slightly easing middle distillate concerns)
Overall, inventory build is not enough to offset potential supply disruption risks tied to Russian oil exports.
📈 Gold Scalping Signals Commentary
This is a textbook geopolitical breakout trigger. If Russia fails to reach a truce by Trump’s deadline, expect:
Secondary sanctions to tighten supply
WTI/Brent to retest recent highs or break higher
Volatility to remain elevated — ideal for intraday scalping
🟢 Premium Members received real-time scalp setups during the surge — including a +100 pips WTI long.
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